Weekly Mortgage Recap

The cup overflowed with an assortment of economic data last week. Of most interest to mortgage watchers were the disappointing data on inflation. The producer price index for finished goods rose 1.1% in March, after a 0.3% increase in February, while the core index, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% after rising 0.5% in February and 0.4% during January.

The data were equally disconcerting on the consumer end, where prices rose 0.3%, exceeding most economists' expectations. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the core consumer price index gained 0.2%. Inflation pressures are being stoked by rocketing crude oil prices, which broached $115-a-barrel last week, and increased food costs as commodity prices around the world continue to soar.

Surprisingly, the mortgage market's reaction to the inflation threat was upbeat, which suggests inflation may not be as onerous as the PPI and CPI numbers would imply. The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose only seven basis points to 6.03%, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose nine basis points to 5.65%, and the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage actually fell 10 basis points to 5.85%, according to the Bankrate.com national survey.

Housing starts fell to a 17-year low in March – a decline that exceeded the consensus estimate twice over. However, given the current overhang in housing inventory, it's far better for housing starts to be low than high. Suppliers must reduce inventory to return some semblance of order to the market, and housing starts suggest that's occurring.

A glass-half-full spin could also be applied to the news that Freddie Mac is planning on buying $10 billion to $15 billion in jumbo mortgages in an effort to counterbalance the upper-end housing market. Freddie Mac used to be restricted from buying jumbo loans – mortgages above $417,000. Thanks to Congress, the new limit now exceeds $729,000 in many areas. Freddie Mac's move to purchase larger loans will grant home buyers cheaper rates than they would have otherwise received.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX Advanced
847-337-7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Mortgage Recap

Recession or no recession? That was last week's $64,000 question, and it appears we are listing toward the former. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged as much, stating that “it now appears likely that real gross domestic product (GDP) will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly.”

Friday's labor report added gravitas to the Fed chairman's sentiments. Government figures showed the economy lost jobs for a third straight month in March, pushing unemployment up to 5.1%. The elimination of 80,000 jobs was the most since March 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. Some professional soothsayers are now portending a 5.5% unemployment rate by year's end (of course, many of these soothsayers are no more accurate than a random coin flip).

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae – the quasi-government agency that buys and securitizes mortgages – continues to up the ante, setting new rules on what mortgages it will buy. On that front, Fannie Mae will no longer purchase loans made to borrowers with credit scores below 580, nor will it purchase loans that have been more than 60 days past due within the year.

Fannie Mae is also correlating fees to credit scores. (It already correlates interest rates to them.) The good news is that fees will drop for borrowers with credit scores of 720 and above. The bad news is that fees double to 1.5% of the loan amount for borrowers with credit scores between 660 and 680. For borrowers with credit scores below 660, fees are even higher.

Higher fees, interest rates, and a non-existent subprime market are making FHA-insured loans a viable alternative for many borrowers with marginal credit. Yes, there is an upfront fee of 1.5% of the loan amount, which can be rolled into the mortgage, and there's a monthly fee too, but FHA doesn't charge a higher premium to borrowers with low credit scores.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX Advanced
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Economic Recap

The laws of economics really do hold. Sales of existing homes rose to a 5.03 million annual rate in February, an unexpected 2.9% increase from January's revised 4.89 million annual rate, according to the National Association of Realtors last Monday. The news flew over the heads of the putative experts, who were calling for a drop to 4.85 million.

So why do the laws of economics hold? Increased sales are being spurred by lower prices. The median existing home price was $195,900 in February, down 8.2% from $213,500 in February 2007. Some of the same experts lamented the drop in price, but shouldn't have. Falling prices improve affordability and encourage people to make purchases, which is exactly what's beginning to occur.

The same holds true on the new-home front, where the median price decreased 2.7% to $244,000 and sales dropped 1.8% to a 590,000 annual rate, which, though a decrease, still beat the consensus estimate by 15,000 units. Just as important, the number of new homes for sale at the end of February dropped to 471,000, the fewest since July 2005, indicating builders are making headway in clearing the inventory glut. (Lower prices also motivate suppliers – builders in this case – to cut production.)
Lower prices have also stimulated mortgage activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its four-week moving average for the seasonally adjusted market index is up 11.3%, with the purchase index up 3.1% and the refinance index up 18.3%, thanks to recent Federal Reserve actions that have shored up the mortgage market by allowing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain below 6% and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage to hang around 5.5%.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Economic Recap

The Federal Reserve's goal last week was to lube the credit-markets' sticky gears. Mission accomplished. First, the Fed buckled and agreed to serve as guarantor of last resort for Bear Stearns – a once mighty Wall Street investment house – and its rapidly depreciating portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In turn, the guarantee prompted another Wall Street firm, JP Morgan, to buy Bear for little more than a song and a quick two-step dance.

The Fed then applied more gear-lubing grease with a 75-basis point cut in the fed funds rate. "The outlook...has weakened further," the Fed said in an accompanying statement. "Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth."

The cut in the Fed funds rate was actually less than what many pundits wanted, but salubrious nonetheless: Stocks soared and the credit-market gained much-needed traction. Fixed-rate mortgages improved dramatically across the nation. The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped 41 basis points, to average 5.98%, while the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 39 basis points, to average 5.46%, according to Bankrate's survey of large mortgage lenders.

Even homebuilders managed to maintain a stiff upper lip. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for March remained at 20, still two points above the historic low of 18 reached in December. It wasn't the greatest news, but at least it suggests that things aren't getting worse.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX Advanced
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Economic Recap

The Federal Reserve captured headlines again, as it tried to stave off another potential credit-market seizure. In this latest go-around, the Fed pledged to lend, in return for unsellable mortgage-backed securities, $200 billion of Treasury notes to banks and investment firms that trade directly with the central bank. The scuttlebutt suggests the Fed acted to save investment-banking behemoth Bear Stearns, which had been unable to secure credit against its massive portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.

These securities matter to Main Street as much as to Wall Street; they provide the source funding for the mortgage market, which is why Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are trying mightily to halt a cycle in which the losses on mortgage investments cause banks to cut their lending, possibly sending the economy into a recession.

Unfortunately, the recalcitrant housing market isn't cooperating. Home foreclosure filings in February edged down from January, but were a whopping 60% higher than a year earlier, according to real estate data firm RealtyTrac. Unfortunately, the mortgage-backed securities market can't improve until the housing market improves.
And as for the recession, some believe the fight is over – and the Fed lost. Separate surveys by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal show the majority opinion believes we are in a recession. The opinion isn't without merit: The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.6% in February. The decline reflects a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity, as Americans grapple with high fuel and food costs and declines in home values and other asset prices.

The good news is that inflation appears to have abated, which seems improbable given soaring oil prices. Nonetheless, it has. The consumer price index showed no increase in consumer prices for February. The benign CPI reading gives the Fed wiggle room to again cut interest rates – a likely event after Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting (where the Fed sets the federal funds rate).

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Mortgage Recap

An old saying declares that every cloud has a silver lining. After last week's torrent of miserable news, one can be forgiven for questioning the sanity of the saying's originator.

Let's start with the heaviest downpour: According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, more than 2% of the nation's 46 million mortgage loans were in the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter of 2007, with 0.83% of loans entering the process during the quarter. Both figures are the highest they've been in 35 years.

What's more, neither figure is likely to improve soon. The delinquency rate for home loans hit 5.82% in the fourth quarter, up almost a quarter percentage point from the previous quarter and the highest since 1985, when the rate topped 6%. The latest increases affected all loan types, but were most pronounced for subprime, adjustable-rate mortgages (no surprise).

The data explain the growing attention paid to proposals aimed at encouraging lenders to write down the value of troubled loans. "Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure," commented Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. With low or negative equity in their home, a stressed borrower has less ability – because there is no home equity to tap – and less financial incentive to try to remain in the home, so the reasoning goes.

It's a tough sell; the last thing lenders want now is to become ensnared in an uncontrollable, morally hazardous spiral of debt forgiveness.

Meanwhile, the number of people who can afford houses has decreased. Payrolls fell by 63,000, the biggest drop since March 2003, after a decline of 22,000 in January, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The jobless rate also declined to 4.8%, reflecting a shrinking labor force, as more people gave up seeking work.

The silver lining in these pessimism-heavy clouds is that prime-mortgage rates reversed course and dropped, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.32%, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 5.79% and the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaging 5.72% last week, according to Bankrate's weekly survey. (But even this lining is tarnished; Bankrate admits rates spiked after collecting its data.)

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Mortgage Recap

Inflation, it's safe to say, is the credit markets' number one concern. And why wouldn't it be? Last week, the consumer price index exceeded most economists' expectations, and this week the producer price index did the same, except it blew past expectations. On that blustery front, the PPI increased 1%, more than double the consensus estimate, while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further fanned inflationary flames when he told Congress that the Fed will do whatever it takes to stop the credit squeeze – the result of turmoil in the mortgage-backed securities market – from becoming a recession. In short, the Fed has essentially shifted gears from maintaining price stability to maintaining economic growth – a legitimate shift, to be sure, considering that gross domestic product slowed to a snail-like 0.6% pace in the October-to-December quarter.

But perhaps the Fed should be as concerned with price stability as the credit markets are. The most-followed inflation indicators have all hit new highs in recent weeks: Oil has surged to $102 a barrel (as recently as September it was $70), gold has surpassed $970 an ounce, the Euro has broached $1.50 for the first time, and many commodity prices have hit record highs.

Unfortunately, oil, gold, et al. haven't been moving higher alone; mortgage rates have been moving higher too. In the past two weeks, rates across the board have shot up 50 basis points (half a percentage point) or more. Freddie Mac's latest survey has prime, conforming loans averaging 6.24% on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, 5.72% on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, and 5.43% on the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage. The good news is that rates are still lower than they were this time last year.


Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com