Weekly Economic Recap

The Federal Reserve captured headlines again, as it tried to stave off another potential credit-market seizure. In this latest go-around, the Fed pledged to lend, in return for unsellable mortgage-backed securities, $200 billion of Treasury notes to banks and investment firms that trade directly with the central bank. The scuttlebutt suggests the Fed acted to save investment-banking behemoth Bear Stearns, which had been unable to secure credit against its massive portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.

These securities matter to Main Street as much as to Wall Street; they provide the source funding for the mortgage market, which is why Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are trying mightily to halt a cycle in which the losses on mortgage investments cause banks to cut their lending, possibly sending the economy into a recession.

Unfortunately, the recalcitrant housing market isn't cooperating. Home foreclosure filings in February edged down from January, but were a whopping 60% higher than a year earlier, according to real estate data firm RealtyTrac. Unfortunately, the mortgage-backed securities market can't improve until the housing market improves.
And as for the recession, some believe the fight is over – and the Fed lost. Separate surveys by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal show the majority opinion believes we are in a recession. The opinion isn't without merit: The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.6% in February. The decline reflects a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity, as Americans grapple with high fuel and food costs and declines in home values and other asset prices.

The good news is that inflation appears to have abated, which seems improbable given soaring oil prices. Nonetheless, it has. The consumer price index showed no increase in consumer prices for February. The benign CPI reading gives the Fed wiggle room to again cut interest rates – a likely event after Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting (where the Fed sets the federal funds rate).

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

Weekly Economic Recap

Scheduled economic news was scarce last week; actual economic news was another matter. Not surprisingly, the mortgage and housing markets garnered most of the headlines on what was reported.

To state the obvious, the economy's fate still hangs on the value of home prices. On that front, the news was discouraging. According to Zillow.com, a real estate data service, 39% of people who purchased a home two years ago owe more than they own. Adding insult to injury, Fannie Mae reported that it expects home prices will decline 4.5% this year and 2.6% in 2009.

Fortunately, more help is on the way. Congress passed an economic stimulus plan that raised the maximum loan sizes for some conforming and Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages. The new conforming limit will vary by metropolitan area. In some places it will remain $417,000; in pricier areas, like San Francisco, it will rise to $729,750. Most of the country though will fall between these bookends.

Project Lifeline, a federal government and mortgage-servicer sponsored program for people on the verge of losing their homes, offers additional hope. Project Lifeline is unique in that unlike previous government programs, the benefits won't be confined to borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages. On the other hand, it will exclude anyone who is currently bankrupt, who hasn't missed more than three months of payments, or who is less than 30 days away from foreclosure. It will also exclude vacant or investment properties.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX ADVANCED
847.337.7090
HomesInBG.com

US weekly Recap

For all the chatter about impending economic doom, it's amazing how the economy keeps plugging along. To wit, the Commerce Department reported that orders for manufactured goods rose 2.3% in December, following a revised 1.7% increase in November. The report is evidence that the putative economic slowdown has yet to hit America's producers of durable products.
All of America's producers – durable and otherwise – are producing what they produce more efficiently, as well. Worker productivity grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the final quarter of 2007, a faster-than-expected pace, which suggests productivity remains healthy and labor costs remain tame.

The productivity report provides the Federal Reserve with more wiggle room to continue lowering interest rates, if needed. And the Fed just might need to. The NAR's pending sales index posted at 84.9% in December, 24.2% below the 113.3 posted in December 2006. The NAR projects existing-home sales at 5.38 million this year and 5.60 million in 2009, with existing-home prices falling 1.2% to a median of $216,300 for all of 2008 before climbing 3.2% to $223,200 in 2009.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun predicts sales activity will remain soft through the first half of the year, but he hedges his prognostication by saying that the market could improve more quickly if the higher conforming loan limits are implemented sooner.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX Advanced (Deerfield)
HomesInBG.com
847-337-7090